Source: Daily Post
Oil prices have jumped above $84 per barrel as tensions involving the United States, Israel and Iran continue to shake global energy markets. The spike is exerting mixed effects on Nigeria. On the one hand, the country is earning more from crude exports—an estimated $14.5 million in extra daily revenue. On the other hand, petrol prices at home are rising again, with pump prices in some cities now moving close to ₦1,000 per litre.
The same pressure is being felt across several countries that rely heavily on Middle Eastern oil. With supply routes under threat and refiners adjusting production, energy markets are reacting quickly. For Nigeria, the situation highlights a familiar reality: when crude prices rise globally, government earnings improve, but fuel costs for consumers often move in the same direction.
Rising Global Oil Prices Push Petrol Prices Higher In Nigeria
Nigeria’s crude oil price now sits above the 2026 budget benchmark of $64.85 per barrel, which is increasing government oil revenue and improving foreign-exchange inflows.
Petrol prices are also rising across the country. The Dangote Petroleum Refinery increased its petrol ex-depot price by ₦100, moving the gantry rate from ₦774 to ₦874 per litre. The refinery introduced the new rate on 2 March, 2026, and fuel marketers quickly adjusted pump prices.
Several filling stations in Lagos now sell petrol between ₦935 and ₦940 per litre, while some outlets in Abuja sell petrol at about ₦960 per litre.
Industry groups expect further increases in pump prices as global crude prices continue to rise. Nigeria operates a deregulated petrol market, which means local pump prices respond more directly to movements in international crude markets.
Retailers and marketers warn that higher fuel costs may increase economic pressure. Rising petrol prices raise transport costs, which often increase the prices of goods and services and contribute to inflation.
Energy costs can also affect currency stability. Higher fuel prices increase demand for foreign exchange used in energy trade, which can place pressure on the naira.
Industry stakeholders continue to call for stronger domestic refining capacity. Stable crude supply to local refineries could reduce dependence on imported petrol and limit exposure to global supply disruptions.
Nigeria requires stable crude supply for local refineries as local refining reduces dependence on imported petrol. Moreso, lower import dependence reduces exposure to global supply disruptions. Strong domestic refining also lessens the impact of international oil price swings on local fuel prices.
Supply Fears Spread Across Global Markets
Much of the market uncertainty centres on the U.S-Israel-Iran conflict which ripples unto the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil shipping route that carries about 20% of global crude supply.
Pressure on supply chains is already emerging. Some Asian refiners that rely on Middle Eastern crude are considering reducing production as shipments face delays. Iraq has also cut output at major southern oilfields, shutting in about 460,000 barrels per day due to storage constraints at export terminals.
Security concerns increased after a drone strike targeted the UAE’s Fujairah oil export hub, a major facility used to ship crude outside the Strait of Hormuz.
If tensions continue, analysts warn that oil prices could rise further, which would increase fuel costs across many countries and add pressure to global inflation.
